Sunday, 27 Jan 2013 ASIC Update Discussion Thread

[rchapoteau]

The update says that the remainder of the 75k chips will take about two weeks after the first batch, so depending on how long it takes for them to assemble and ship 6k worth of chips the delay might be pretty minimal.

Yeah, I figured that, but I was looking for an actual date on a timeline the same way everything else is. Right now the timeline only goes up to the first shipment happening, but nothing really after that. I'm probably not going to be in the first shipment since I ordered in November. For me the more info the better :-)

[Fjordbit]

The point of the 1/3rd plan was to make it so that the people who had their money locked up for a long time would have a chance at equality. This is why the first month was promised this. I have orders from the first day, but I added on orders later in the first month with the understanding that I had a shot at being put first. I just don't understand why there is a need to change it. Stick with what you promise at the time. People use those promises to make business decisions. It's understandable when there is a complete failure to keep the shipping date, but this is something that is fully under BFL's control and they are just arbitrarily changing it.

[donkey]

and they are just arbitrarily changing it.

No, they're still doing it and no one said they weren't. Josh indicated that it wasn't really necessary at this point due to other factors, but also said they're still doing it. The benefit you perceived in the beginning may not turn out to be much of a benefit but that seems to have more to do with the marketplace than any change in policy.

[MrTeal]

No, they're still doing it and no one said they weren't. Josh indicated that it wasn't really necessary at this point due to other factors, but also said they're still doing it. The benefit you perceived in the beginning may not turn out to be much of a benefit but that seems to have more to do with the marketplace than any change in policy.

No, they are changing it. Now it's just for the first 6k chips instead of 12k which likely won't cover the first month of orders.

How much of a difference it makes will depend on how much of the first month 6k chips covers. I would say that if 6k chips covers at least 50% of the first month orders, the effect will be minimal. If it's much less than that, it does start to disadvantage those who were relying on it.

[donkey]

No, they are changing it. Now it's just for the first 6k chips instead of 12k which likely won't cover the first month of orders.

How much of a difference it makes will depend on how much of the first month 6k chips covers. I would say that if 6k chips covers at least 50% of the first month orders, the effect will be minimal. If it's much less than that, it does start to disadvantage those who were relying on it.

If at any point during the first month of orders there was a guarantee to apply this method to a total of 12K chips or within some limit I think you have a point. I don't think there was. It's been my understanding that 1/3 applies to the first batch of preorders, and I would interpret the "first batch" as composed of anything really... There could be 9 assembled units or 9000 in the first batch. If 6K chips covers one month of preorders, that's fine, or if it only covers 7 days, that's fine, but I'd also not be surprised if it covered up to three months of preorders.

It sounds like the problem or "change" is really that BFL expected more orders than they actually have (or have more chips on hand they expected in the first batch), and did not expect to be able to fulfill all of their orders in the first batch, therefore needing to hedge on shipping terms instead of promising sequential and batch delivery. I'd consider the 1/3 thing fulfilled if they go ahead and do it on day one, then on day 2 ship out the rest of the orders if they have enough chips. I didn't expect any artificial delay in shipping, though I wouldn't be surprised if the people who ordered in August, October, or some other arbitrary time after the initial orders to have to wait a few weeks for the next batch of chips.

[MrTeal]

If at any point during the first month of orders there was a guarantee to apply this method to a total of 12K chips or within some limit I think you have a point. I don't think there was. It's been my understanding that 1/3 applies to the first batch of preorders, and I would interpret the "first batch" as composed of anything really... There could be 9 assembled units or 9000 in the first batch. If 6K chips covers one month of preorders, that's fine, or if it only covers 7 days, that's fine, but I'd also not be surprised if it covered up to three months of preorders.

It sounds like the problem or "change" is really that BFL expected more orders than they actually have (or have more chips on hand they expected in the first batch), and did not expect to be able to fulfill all of their orders in the first batch, therefore needing to hedge on shipping terms instead of promising sequential and batch delivery. I'd consider the 1/3 thing fulfilled if they go ahead and do it on day one, then on day 2 ship out the rest of the orders if they have enough chips. I didn't expect any artificial delay in shipping, though I wouldn't be surprised if the people who ordered in August, October, or some other arbitrary time after the initial orders to have to wait a few weeks for the next batch of chips.

Yeah, it's not a change from when the plan was announced, back then no indication at all was given on the size of the first batch. It's only a change from a few weeks ago when it was mentioned that they might do all 10k-12k chips in the first batch, and now it's 6k. That change didn't affect anyone's purchasing decision back in July though.

[Fjordbit]

I personally just don't understand the change. Aside from the fact that we shouldn't need a reason to keep it as agreed, and that there should be a good reason provided for changing the agreement, it is by far easier to implement the 1/3rd plan over the first month of orders than over the the first 6k chips. This is because the list of the first month of orders is known now, but the orders covered by the first 6k chips is not known due to breakage. Knowing the first month of orders, the algorithm is then

upgrade_list = list of upgrade numbers over the month
neworder_list = list of new order numbers over the month
random_list = upgrade_list + neworder_list
randomize random_list
while random_list is not empty
- pop from upgrade_list to u
- remove u from random_list
- add u to final_list
- pop from neworder_list to n
- remove n from random_list
- add n to final_list
- pop from random_list to r
- remove r from upgrade_list (if not there remove nothing)
- remove r from neworder_list (if not there remove nothing)
- add r to final list
end while
print final_list

and boom, you have the set of orders all mixed in randomly according to a 1/3rd plan. With using the first month plan, this could be done today and people could be told in advance about when their order would be fulflled. But without knowledge of the actual list of orders like by limiting it to the orders covered by the first 6k, then the problem become much harder and you need to evaluate as you go.

(put in some dashes in the algorithm because I can't figure out how to indent in a comment)

[MrTeal]

I personally just don't understand the change. Aside from the fact that we shouldn't need a reason to keep it as agreed, and that there should be a good reason provided for changing the agreement, it is by far easier to implement the 1/3rd plan over the first month of orders than over the the first 6k chips. This is because the list of the first month of orders is known now, but the orders covered by the first 6k chips is not known due to breakage. Knowing the first month of orders, the algorithm is then

upgrade_list = list of upgrade numbers over the month
neworder_list = list of new order numbers over the month
random_list = upgrade_list + neworder_list
randomize random_list
while random_list is not empty
pop from upgrade_list to u
remove u from random_list
add u to final_list
pop from neworder_list to n
remove n from random_list
add n to final_list
pop from random_list to r
remove r from upgrade_list (if not there remove nothing)
remove r from neworder_list (if not there remove nothing)
add r to final list
end while
print final_list

and boom, you have the set of orders all mixed in randomly according to a 1/3rd plan. With using the first month plan, this could be done today and people could be told in advance about when their order would be fulflled. But without knowledge of the actual list of orders like by limiting it to the orders covered by the first 6k, then the problem become much harder and you need to evaluate as you go.

Wait, I don't think the 1/3 plan was ever meant to last until every order in the first month was satisfied. It was just for the first batch, whatever that batch size ended up being. So, it was 1/3 new orders in FIFO, 1/3 upgrade orders in FIFO, and 1/3 random orders from the first month. That hasn't changed, it's just that the size of the first batch is shrinking from 10-12k to 6k chips.

[Fjordbit]

It absolutely was not limited to a batch but to the first month of orders. I refer you to an earlier comment in this thread which quotes the FAQ as such.

You can also see this quoted in this post by cablepair in August referencing BFL on June 27 that the 1/3 plan applies to orders placed in the first month (6/23 - 7/23).

And here's a page with BFL saying it on June 23rd.

It was always the first month and this is a change, period.

[MrTeal]

It absolutely was not limited to a batch but to the first month of orders. I refer you to an earlier comment in this thread which quotes the FAQ as such.

You can also see this quoted in this post by cablepair in August referencing BFL on June 27 that the 1/3 plan applies to orders placed in the first month (6/23 - 7/23).

And here's a page with BFL saying it on June 23rd.

It was always the first month and this is a change, period.

The links you quote disagree with you.

Firstly, the initial orders will be grouped into a batch prior to shipment. This will ensure no one is an unfair beneficiary of disproportionate hashing power. Having said this, we only have so much production capacity and the initial order group will still do very very well. That being the case, here are the rules we will stick to in releasing these units.

1/3rd of the units will go in order priority of purchase date.
1/3rd of the units will go to trade in customers.
1/3rd of the units will go to random orders placed in the first month (6/23 - 7/23).

Emphasis mine. Nowhere does it say how large the first batch would be, just that it would include 1/3 of the units shipped to random customers with orders in the first month. After that first batch the plan has always been to go to a FIFO. As far as I know, that's not changing.